WTPS31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 140.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 140.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.9S 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.0S 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.4S 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.8S 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 17.2S 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 17.7S 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 141.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 12-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 240521Z GPM 37GHZ PASS WHICH IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE IN THE MSI WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TILTED SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF 16P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-KNOT NORTHERLY VWS BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE GULF ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. TC NORA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 12 ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA AS THE NER BUILDS. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL BUILD AND COMPETE FOR STEERING, CAUSING TC 16P TO BECOME QS UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE NER WILL RECEDE AND THE STR WILL DOMINATE AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN TERRITORY. THE INITIAL LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 16P, THEN AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CAUSE A MORE RAPID DECAY. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND BY TAU 96 WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN UNISON WITH THE TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, HOWEVER, EGRR AND AFUM OFFER A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE CORAL SEA AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE EGRR/AFUM SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF A QS MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z, AND 251500.//