WTPS31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 11.3S 138.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 138.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 12.8S 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.4S 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.7S 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.5S 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.1S 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 17.7S 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 18.5S 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 139.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND A PARTIAL 231208Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM CIMSS AND CIRA. TC 16S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL (NEQ) RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, WITH DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT AROUND A PARTIALLY OPEN EYEWALL, AS CAPTURED BY MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEQ STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE STORM MOTION. FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS BY TAU 96, WHEN THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TC 16S WESTWARD. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TC 16S PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITH SUPPORTING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. AFTER TAU 36, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. TC 16S WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER, A FEW MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//