WTXS32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 105.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 105.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.9S 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 26.4S 107.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 28.3S 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 30.4S 108.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 105.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIX DATA FROM CIMSS AND CIRA. TC 15S IS STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY AND WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS STEADY WEAKENING TREND WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//