WTXS32 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 123.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 123.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.1S 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 14.9S 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.9S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.1S 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.8S 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.7S 106.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 25.3S 106.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 122.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EARLY STAGE OF EYE FORMATION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A NEARLY CLOSED OFF MICROWAVE EYE IN AN 182306Z 89 GHZ MHS IMAGE AND A SIMILAR CYAN RING FEATURE OBSERVED AN 182208 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE SSMIS IMAGE, INDICATIVE OF NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 65 KNOTS REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AVERAGING MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.5 (55 TO 77 KNOTS) AND A 182203Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ADELE ISLAND IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 45 KNOTS AND A 6 MB DROP IN MSLP TO 998 MB OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH A DEFINED EASTERN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AGAINST THE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SSTS ARE ALSO EXTREMELY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) WITH SIGNIFICANT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 48. TC 15S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 15S WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL AROUND TAU 72 WHEN THE TRACK WILL SHIFT POLEWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE POLEWARD TRACK WILL TAKE TC 15S INTO COOLER WATERS WHICH WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN LATER TAUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//