WTXS32 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 130.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 130.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.6S 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.3S 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.7S 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0S 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.2S 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.1S 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.4S 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 129.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON PGTW AND KNES FIX POSITIONS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXTREMELY WARM (30 TO 31C) AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30 CELSIUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE TRACK WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO BECOME MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE INITIAL TRACK WILL SKIRT THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE AND REMAIN IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VWS, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION UNTIL AFTER TAU 48 WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES COMPLETELY OVER WATER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//