WTIO30 FMEE 190119



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20172018

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  7  (ELIAKIM)



2.A POSITION 2018/03/19 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 49.5 E

(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE    DECIMAL

FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 220 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 150 NW: 110







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/03/19 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2018/03/20 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/03/20 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2018/03/21 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2018/03/21 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2018/03/22 00 UTC: 37.0 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/03/23 00 UTC: 42.9 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY

STRENGTHENED, AS THE DISTANCE FROM THE COAST BECOME GREATER, AND

BEGIN TO ORGANIZE INTO A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE. LAST ASCAT DATA AT

1854Z CONFIRM THE INTENSITY OF ELIAKIM WITH WINDS OF 40KT IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.



ELIAKIM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENNERALLY SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD

ALONG THE WESTERN AND THEN SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE

BEFORE ENTERING WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES LATER THIS WEEK.



THE SYSTEM BENEFIT FOR THE MOMENT OF A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL

DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH. AS IT GETS FARER FROM THE

COAST, IT SHOULD  INTENSIFY A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT HOURS. BUT THE

STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  DURING MONDAY

AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL DEFINITIVELY LIMIT THIS

INTENSIFICATION.



FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS

EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE DURING ITS

SOUTHERN TRACK.=