WTPS31 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 163.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 163.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 27.9S 164.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 32.4S 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 37.2S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 29 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 42.3S 170.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 163.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DECREASING AND HIGHLY SHEARED DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY 291839Z GPM 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A 291235Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS) AND A MULTI-SENSOR SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI HAS LIKELY COMPLETED TRANSITION TO A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. TC FEHI CURRENTLY LIES UNDER STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER ONLY MARGINAL (26-27 DEGREES C) SSTS. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION INDICATES A STRONG WARM ANOMALY IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER, WITH A WEAK WARM ANOMALY PRESENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SUPPORTING THE ASSESSMENT THAT TC FEHI IS IN FACT SUB-TROPICAL. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND TAU 24. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSITY FROM TAU 24 TO 48, AS IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48, AS A 50 KNOT SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//