WTPS31 PGTW 290900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 163.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 163.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 22.8S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 25.8S 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 29.2S 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 33.0S 164.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 325 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 163.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH, NEAR THE POLEWARD END OF AN ACTIVE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI, AND SUPPORTED BY A 280541Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW 280600Z 3.0/3.5 FIX AND NEARBY OBSERVATIONS, BUT ABOVE THE ABRF AND KNES FIXES OF 1.0/1.5 AND 1.5/1.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STRONG (OVER 25 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL (26-27 DEGREES C) PREVENTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ROBUST OUTFLOW STILL PROVIDES STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR THE SYSTEM. TC FEHI IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE INDICATES FEHI SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 40 TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TAU 36, TC 08P WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. ETT WILL COMPLETE BY TAU 48, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY AS A COLD-CORE SYSTEM AND EXPAND ITS WIND FIELD AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//