WTPS31 PGTW 290300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 162.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 162.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 21.7S 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 24.4S 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 27.7S 163.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 31.2S 164.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 39.3S 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 162.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEAR THE POLEWARD END OF AN ACTIVE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI, AND SUPPORTED BY A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES, WHICH ALSO PROVIDED UPDATED WIND RADII INFORMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KNOTS, BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW USING SHEAR METHOD, AS WELL AS A T3.0 FROM NFFN, AND IS SUPPORTED BY ASCAT DATA, SATCON ESTIMATED 55 KTS, MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS 49 KNOTS, AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STILL HIGH, BUT HAS MODERATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO ROBUST. TC FEHI IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF VWS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 08P MAY DISSIPATE AS A CLOSED LOW PRIOR TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, MOST MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE INDICATES FEHI SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL HIGHER VWS VALUES RESUME AND SST VALUES BECOME MARGINAL. BY TAU 36, TC 08P WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ETT WILL COMPLETE BY TAU 72, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENERGY CONVERSION AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z, AND 300300Z.//