WTPS31 PGTW 281500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 161.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 161.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.7S 162.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 22.7S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 25.3S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 28.3S 164.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 36.0S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 162.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 08S IS BEING INCREASINGLY SHEARED, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, ON A LLCC AND LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN A 281044Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40- KNOT PLUS) VWS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED WEAK CONVECTION, ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ACCELERATES POLEWARD AND BECOMES EMBDEDDED IN AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONCURRENTLY, TC 08S WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT GETS ABSORBED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WIND FIELD, AND THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND, WITH STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED FURTHER FROM THE CENTER, INTO A COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TC 08S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT PREDICTING ACCELERATING POLEWARD MOTION, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z. //