WTXS31 PGTW 311500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 77.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 77.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 15.6S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.0S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.6S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.4S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.6S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.8S 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.8S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 77.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A CLEAR EYE FEATURE, A VERY SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT COMPARED TO A MUCH BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE EYE FEATURE HAS GRADUALLY CONTRACTED FROM 30 NM TO 25 NM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 310935Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE EYE DIAMETER AND INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF 108 KNOTS. TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO THE NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVE, WITH A 100 NM SPREAD AT TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR TO BUT JUST SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//