WTXS31 PGTW 302100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 78.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 78.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 15.8S 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 15.8S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.1S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.7S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 17.8S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 19.3S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 22.1S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 78.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A MASSIVE EYE NEARLY 60NM ACROSS AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING INTO A STRONG CONVECTIVE CORE. IT HAD BEEN EXPECTED THAT THE EYE DIAMETER WOULD HAVE DECREASED AFTER COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) YESTERDAY BUT THE EYE HAS REMAINED EXTREMELY WIDE. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE EYE IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK AGAIN. A 301647Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE, COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.6 (102 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINMENT AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATELY HIGH OHC VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ROBUST BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DUE TO A POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S LIES IN A COL AREA TRAPPED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENTIRE RIDGE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD RESULTING IN A WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 07S THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING TC 07S TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD. BEYOND TAU 72, THE NER REORIENTS TO A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FACTOR, LEADING TC 07S TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 07S TRANSITS THROUGH THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR-TERM, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY NEAR 115 KNOTS WITH SMALL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ERC. AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD BEYOND TAU 72, IT WILL UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES COOLER WATERS, VWS INCREASES AND OUTFLOW SHIFTS TO A SINGLE CHANNEL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY, BUT THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN. JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW A MUCH SLOWER WESTWARD ADVANCE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MAKING THE TURN SOUTHEAST AND ARE THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIERS. THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW A QUICKER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TAU 48, LEADING TO A TURN FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//