WTXS31 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 80.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 80.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.2S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.2S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.4S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.9S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.4S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.5S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 80.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 707 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A BROADENED EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS WIDENED TO OVER 50 NM AFTER AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES OF THE EYE FEATURE. THE PLACEMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF A 292200Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LARGE EYE FEATURE WITH A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SOME EVIDENCE OF THE PREVIOUS EYEWALL, WHICH HAS NOW BEEN REPLACED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS THOUGH THE CYCLONE PROBABLY REACHED A MINIMUM OF AROUND 95 KNOTS BETWEEN WARNING CYCLES DUE TO THE ERC. NOW THAT THE ERC IS COMPLETE, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN BACK TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 106 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC CEBILE CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND HIGH SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC 07S REMAINS COCOONED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE LYING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN OF COMPETING RIDGES IS SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD, DRAGGING TC 07S ALONG WITH IT. TC CEBILE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, THOUGH IT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. THE U.S. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 72 NEAR THE 75E LONGITUDE LINE, WHILE THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND HWRF SOLUTIONS, ALONG WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ARE SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE GROUPING OF THE U.S. MODELS AS AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AT THIS TIME. NOW THAT THE ERC HAS COMPLETED, TC CEBILE WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, AS THERE IS LITTLE TO HINDER THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 72, COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH, AND LARGE SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//