WTXS31 PGTW 271500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 84.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 84.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 12.8S 84.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 13.8S 83.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 14.5S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.1S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 15.4S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 15.6S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.8S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 84.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 270858Z 85 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE PASS AND FROM THE CURRENT STORM MOTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) NORTHERLY VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE VWS VECTOR. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THIS STR EXTENSION BUILDS. AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD, PROMOTING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, IT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS TOWARD THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LENDING AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//