WTXS31 PGTW 270900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 84.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 12.0S 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 13.2S 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.1S 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 14.5S 81.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 14.8S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 14.8S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.8S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 84.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION BASED ON A REASSESSMENT OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER, THIS RELOCATION HAS NOT RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07S HAS TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THIS PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TC 07S WILL TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD DIRECTION. BY TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE, RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH NAVGEM AND THE UKMET MODEL DEPICT TC 07S BASICALLY CONTINUING POLEWARD, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH NEVER BECOMING FULLY ESTABLISHED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. ALL OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ALTHOUGH OFFSET SLIGHTLY FROM THE LOWER PROBABILITY NAVGEM AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//