WTXS31 PGTW 012100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MUCH MORE RAGGED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 1703 ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND SUPPORTED BY THE ACCOMPANYING AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.8 (112 KNOTS). TC 07S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE AT 200MB AND HIGH SST VALUES. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL TURN POLEWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST RECEDES TO THE WEST AND AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION AND DRIVE TC 07S TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24 AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES TO THE NER. AFTER TAU 72 THE NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF TC 07S, LEADING TO A DECREASE IN STORM MOTION AND A SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF OCEAN SURFACE COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING. BEYOND TAU 12 HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND EROSION OF OUTFLOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE DISSIPATES AND IS REPLACED BY GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS PREDICTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR BY AROUND TAU 120, HOWEVER NEW DATA INDICATES THAT THIS IS UNLIKELY. NEAR TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER STR, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING IT OFF FROM THE MID- LATITUDE TROUGHS AND THE ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, ALLOWING TC 07S TO MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSITING OVER COOLER WATERS AT THIS POINT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLOW DISSIPATION OVER WATER VICE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. ECMWF, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CTCX ARE THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIERS, SHOWING A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE NER EXTENSION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE FURTHER EAST, THOUGH THEY TOO AGREE ON THE GENERAL PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY TRACK BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THE RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD AMONG FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASED SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z, AND 021500Z.//