WTIO30 FMEE 301219 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20172018 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 2.A POSITION 2018/01/30 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 79.0 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 210 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 190 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120 64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 120H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE WIDE EYE PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE MUCH. THE CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATED A LITTLE, BUT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAINED STABLE AROUND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMAL STAGE (85KT). SSMIS 1035Z SWATH CONFIRMS THE SOLIDITY OF THE ANNULAR STRUCTURE OF CEBILE. APART DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE AND SUGGEST A STABLE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOURS. CEBILE IS STILL TRACKING WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAYS, SUGGESTING THAT THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER. OVER THE NEXT DAYS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WEAKENING BEFORE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING FLOW FRIDAY. THIS DRIVES A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT COURSE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAYS, BETWEEN A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION FOR GFS. HOWEVER, THE AGREEMENT OVER THE TIMING OF THE TURN IS GOOD. UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, CEBILE SHOULD TRACK WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, WHICH IS EVEN INCREASING WEST OF 80E. AS LONG AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF 20S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND ENOUGH ENERGY IN THE OCEAN TO SHIELD ITSELF FROM THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. HOWEVER, IF THE MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE SST SELF-INDUCED COOLING COULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. CONSISTENTLY WITH THE SPEED OF THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT DAYS (MODULO THE FLUCTUATIONS LINKED TO EVENTUAL ERCS). FROM FRIDAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.=