WTIO30 FMEE 290021



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/29 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 82.2 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL

TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 170

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/29 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.5 CI=6.0.



AFTER A EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY, CEBILE SEEMS TO

HAVE REACHED A MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY SHOWING A CIRCULAR EYE VERY HOT

WITHIN A SYMETRIC CDO VERY COLD. THEN IN THE VERY LAST HOURS THE

CLOUD PRESENTATION HAS QUICKLY DETERIORED  WITH IN PARTICULAR THE

LOSS OF THE EYE. THIS QUICK EVOLUTION SEEMS TO BE DU  TO THE ARRIVAL

OVER SEAS OF REDUCE ENERGICAL POTENTIAL. CEBILE IS A SMALL INNER CORE

SYSTEM AND THAT FEATURE FAVOR RAPID INTENSITY CHANGE.



CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION

OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF

CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG

WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE

VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO

THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF

THE LATEST GUIDANCE.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK, AND DIVERGENCE

VERY GOOD. HOWEVER, CEBILE WILL TRANSIT ON AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC

POTENTIAL IS LESS. MOREOVER, FROM TUESDAY THE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL

ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DRY SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN

AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CEBILE MAY START A SLOW WEAKENING TREND

THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR

INCREASE.=