WTIO30 FMEE 281832



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 82.6 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL

SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 2.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 170

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/29 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/29 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=6.0-.



CEBILE UNDERWENT EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 24

HOURS (+65 KT !). DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO

BECOME BETTER DEFINED, AND WARMING, THE CDO SEEMS TO BE MORE SYMETRIC

. CEBILE IS A SMALL INNER CORE SYSTEM AND THAT FEATURE FAVOR RAPID

INTENSITY CHANGE.



CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION

OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF

CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG

WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE

VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO

THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF

THE LATEST GUIDANCE.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIRST MAINTAIN INTENSIFICATION AS

THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK, AND DIVERGENCE VERY GOOD.

HOWEVER, CEBILE WILL TRANSIT ON AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS

LESS. MOREOVER, FROM TUESDAY THE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS

EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DRY SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE. CEBILE MAY START BY THAT TIME A SLOW WEAKENING TREND

THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR

INCREASE. INTERNAL DYNAMICS (EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE) MAY ALSO

MODULATE THE INTENSITY BUT THIS MECHANISM HAS VERY LOW

PREDICTABILITY.=