WTXS32 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 018 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 68.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 68.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 33.0S 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 41 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 40.0S 74.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 350 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 41 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 47.1S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 545 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 570 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9S 68.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 753 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS) AND A 100332Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SOLID REGION OF 4O KNOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET WITH WIND SHEAR STARTING INCREASE. TC 04S IS TRACKING EXPEDITIOUSLY AT 22 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TC 04S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO A FAST APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. TC 04S WILL RAPIDLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY TIGHT GROUPING AND OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//