WTXS32 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 75.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 75.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 22.3S 72.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 25.1S 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 29.1S 68.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 28 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 34.4S 70.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 43.2S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 415 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 430 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 74.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CENTRALLY LOCATED DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 082157Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 83 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 27 CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND NO ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36 WHEN IT WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AROUND TAU 48, TC IRVING WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//