WTXS32 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 79.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 79.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.4S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 21.5S 73.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 24.3S 71.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 28.2S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 38.4S 72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 310 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 79.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 761 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION AND AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 080429Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A WELL DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//