WTXS32 PGTW 060900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 90.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 90.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 13.2S 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 14.2S 85.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.6S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 17.6S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 22.9S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 29.2S 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 40.1S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 89.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1108 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 060550Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 04S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL BEGIN TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//