WTIO30 FMEE 090112 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20172018 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING) 2.A POSITION 2018/01/09 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 75.3 E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 17 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 310 SE: 570 SW: 500 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 190 SE: 410 SW: 240 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 70 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2018/01/11 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2018/01/11 12 UTC: 43.4 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, DISSIPATING 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.0- CI=4.5- MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOW A STRONGLY IMPACTED INNER-CORE BY THE INCREASING NORTH-NORTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINS EMBEDDED CENTER ANS THE POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE SSMI PASS AT 2149Z. STILL NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR IRVING, ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION, THEREFORE THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. WEDNESDAY, IRVING SHOULD BE CATCH BY A BROAD BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AT A STILL FAST MOTION IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT.=