WTXS31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 112.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 112.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 13.6S 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 15.6S 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 17.3S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 18.3S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 19.3S 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 112.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 623 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE INFRARED LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 021446Z METOP- B PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANALYSIS OF THE CIMSS TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ANALYSIS OF MUTLI-AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AND AREA OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 01S HAS WEAK POLEWARD OUTLOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. TC DAHLIA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIMITED INTENSIFICATION AS THE OUTFLOW TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET AND THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECAY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH, AND AN EXTENSIVE DRY AIR MASS WILL COMBINE TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 72. IN THE LATER TAUS, THE STEERING RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE VARIATION IN THE FORECASTED RETROGRADING OF THE STEERING TROUGH. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//