WTXS31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 11.4S 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 12.6S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 14.5S 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.6S 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 19.1S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 20.4S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 20.6S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 110.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CENTERED OVER THE ASSESSED AND OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 012282Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A RATHER ELONGATED SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, WHICH CAN BE DENOTED BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING VISIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AS WELL AS AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T3.2 (49 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN OVERALL MODERATELY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28-29 DEG CELSIUS. TC 01S HAS BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY, BLOCKED FROM ADDITIONAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. TC 01S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. TC DAHLIA WILL CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST-WEST AXIS, ALLOWING TC 01S TO SHIFT TO AN EASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 48, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SHARPLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 01S, FULLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER, THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE THE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS IN LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//