WTIO31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 68.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 68.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.1N 69.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 16.7N 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 18.4N 71.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.1N 71.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 22.8N 72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 68.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OCKHI IS MAINTAINING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 031657Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS, BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5, AND SUPPORTED BY BOTH CIMSS SATCON AND CIRA MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATES. ADDITIONALLY, A 031658Z ASCAT PASS PROVIDED INPUT TO THE ANALYZED WIND RADII ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ENHANCED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES HAVE REACHED AN UNFAVORABLY HIGH 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WITH VALUES INCREASING TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATES DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. TC 03B IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. 03B IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES AROUND THE WESTWARD MOST EDGE OF THE RIDGE. INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOLER WATERS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN TC 03B OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 03B SHOULD BE NEARLY DISSIPATED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE WEST COAST OF INDIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//