WTIO31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 11.7N 69.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 69.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 13.1N 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 14.6N 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.1N 69.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 18.0N 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 21.6N 73.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 24.7N 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 69.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 797 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INTO AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 022020Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28- 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 03B HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ITS TRACK INITIALLY TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY TAU 24 AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72, NORTH OF MUMBAI IN THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE AS VWS FROM AN APPROACHING TROUGH BEGINS TO INCREASE AND HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN TC OCKHI. INCREASING VWS COMBINED WITH DECREASING ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL FULLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//