WTIO31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 69.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 69.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 12.7N 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 14.2N 68.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.5N 69.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 16.9N 70.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.4N 72.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 23.9N 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 69.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 826 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 021632Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.5 (77 TO 102 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 98 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29 CELSISU) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS TAPPING INTO MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 03B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TRACK TO THE NORTH EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIA. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS HOURS ALLOWING TC 03B TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION INDUCING VWS AND TC 03B TRACKS INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM CAUSING FURTHER WEAKENING. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF MUMBAI NEAR THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT. INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//