WTIO31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 10.6N 70.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 70.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 12.0N 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 13.2N 68.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 14.8N 68.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.2N 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 19.3N 71.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 21.9N 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 70.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1069 NM NORTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND FILLING IN THE PREVIOUS EYE FEATURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 021115Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING RING OF CONVECTION SOMEWHAT WEAKER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.5 (77 TO 102 KNOTS) AND A 021113Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 103 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC 03B IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 24 TO 36 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TC 03B WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 A WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SSTS IN THE REGION BEGIN TO DECREASE AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION INDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COOLER AND DRYER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AROUND THIS TIME AS 03B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE WEST COAST OF INDIA JUST BEFORE TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD GROUPING AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WITH THE FORECAST TRACK NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//