WTIO31 PGTW 020900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 9.9N 71.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 71.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 11.2N 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 12.4N 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 13.7N 68.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.0N 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 18.3N 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 21.1N 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 23.4N 73.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 70.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1024 NM NORTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A 15NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SYSTEM EYE AND A PARTIAL 020626Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWING A RING OF CONVECTION SOMEWHAT WEAKER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND A 020301Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 86 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC 03B IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 24 TO 36 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TC 03B WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 12. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 A WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SSTS IN THE REGION BEGIN TO DECREASE AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION INDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COOLER AND DRYER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AROUND THIS TIME AS 03B TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE WEST COAST OF INDIA JUST AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD GROUPING AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WITH THE FORECAST TRACK NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//