WTIO31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 9.4N 71.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 71.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 10.2N 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 11.3N 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 12.9N 69.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 14.4N 69.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 17.7N 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.8N 71.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 21.8N 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 71.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 959 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH A 21NM EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN BOTH THE INFRARED IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 012257Z SSMSI 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING THE RELATIVELY LARGE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T5.3 (97 KNOTS) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT TC 03B LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS), BUT THE SHEAR VECTOR REMAINS IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, LEADING TO LOW RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, AS THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIVERGENT PATTERN, PROVIDING OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST, WEST, AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER A BAND OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS), ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. TC 03B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. BY TAU 48, TC 03B WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO TRANSIT TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND, AS UPPER LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SMOTHERS THE OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER WESTERN INDIA AS A VERY WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE FULLY DISSIPATING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER, WITH THE EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATING COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 WITH THE REMNANTS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE US MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT MOVED FURTHER LEFT IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL DISSIPATION SCENARIO. OVERALL THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//