WTIO31 PGTW 012100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 9.2N 72.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 72.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 10.0N 71.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 11.1N 69.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 12.6N 69.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 14.2N 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 17.3N 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.6N 71.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 23.9N 72.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 71.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 979 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PASTSIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH CORE CONVECTION MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FLARING, WITH HINTS AT EYE DEVELOPMENT, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 011653Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTING A DISTINCT, SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR VECTOR IS ALIGNED WITH THE STORM MOTION VECTOR, SO THE RELATIVE SHEAR IS FAVORABLE. OUTFLOW IS STRONG TOWARDS THE WEST AND POLEWARD, OFFSETTING THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING OVER A BAND OF HIGHER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS), ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. TC 03B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. BY TAU 48, TC 03B WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO TRANSIT TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP- LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK OVER SLIGHT COOLER WATERS AND VWS INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN INDIAN COAST AROUND TAU 96 AS A DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//