WTPQ40 LIJR 030448 TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MESSAGE NUMBER 001 THIS IS AN AUTOMATIC ALERT FROM THE GLOBAL DISASTER ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM (WWW.GDACS.ORG) **************************************************** * RED ALERT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUDELOR-15 * **************************************************** SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUDELOR-15 CAN HAVE A HIGH HUMANITARIAN IMPACT BASED ON THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED AND THE AFFECTED POPULATION AND THEIR VULNERABILITY. UPDATED: THIS REPORT IS BASED ON ADVISORY NUMBER 16. WIND --------------- -TROPICAL CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM (MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 231.48 KM/H) -ON 03 AUG 2015 00:00:00 UTC -POPULATION AFFECTED BY CATEGORY 1 (120 KM/H) WIND SPEEDS OR HIGHER IS 3.9 M -VULNERABILITY: MEDIUM EXTREME RAIN -------------- POTENTIAL RAINFALL IS CALCULATED BASED ON RAINFALL OBSERVED BY SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE SENSORS. THE IMAGE SHOWS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE: HTTP://DMA.GDACS.ORG/SAVED/GDACS/TC/1000191/RAIN_1000191_16.PNG STORM SURGE ------------- THE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE HEIGHT IS 0.4 M IN AFETNA (NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS). THIS HEIGHT IS ESTIMATED AT 8/2/2015 3:00:00 PM UTC. DETAILS =========== EVENT TIME LINE ---------------- THE STORM EVOLUTION IS SHOWN IN THE TABLE BELOW. ALERT LEVELS AND POPULATION ESTIMATES ARE RELATED TO THE AREA FROM A POINT TO THE NEXT. ADV. ALERT COL DATE UTC CATEGORY SPEED GUSTS POPULATION LAT/LON (WIND IN KM/H) AFFECTED 2 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 65 0 N/A 159.10/13.70 3 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 75 0 N/A 158.60/13.90 4 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 75 0 N/A 158.40/13.50 5 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 75 0 N/A 156.50/13.80 6 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 65 0 N/A 155.70/13.80 7 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 65 0 N/A 154.90/13.40 8 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 65 0 N/A 153.20/13.60 9 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 75 0 N/A 152.20/14.10 10 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 84 0 N/A 150.80/14.10 11 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 93 0 N/A 149.80/14.20 12 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) TROPICAL STORM 112 0 80 K 148.30/14.60 13 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 121 0 N/A 146.80/14.80 14 ORANGE 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 168 0 80 K 145.90/15.10 15 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 196 0 N/A 145.00/15.60 16 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 214 0 N/A 144.10/16.20 16 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 242 0 N/A 141.90/17.20 16 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 252 0 N/A 139.60/18.10 16 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 261 0 N/A 137.30/19.00 16 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 261 0 N/A 135.10/19.80 16 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 252 0 N/A 130.70/21.40 16 RED 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 233 0 3.8 M 126.40/23.20 16 GREEN 03 AUG 2015 04:48 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 205 0 N/A 122.10/24.90 ============================================================================================================ LIST OF 10 HEIGHEST STORM SURGE LOCATIONS CALCULATION BASED ON ADVISORY NUMBER 16 OF 03 AUG 2015 00:00:00 (SIMULATION USING 6 MINUTE RESOLUTION) ARRIVALTIME (UTC) LOCATION COUNTRY MAX EST. HEIGHT (M) 02 AUG 2015 15:00 AFETNA NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.4 02 AUG 2015 14:00 KAGMAN NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.3 02 AUG 2015 14:00 SAN ROQUE NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.3 02 AUG 2015 14:00 SAIPAN NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.3 02 AUG 2015 14:00 TANAPAG NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.3 02 AUG 2015 14:00 ASLITO NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.3 02 AUG 2015 14:00 CHALAN KANOA NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.3 02 AUG 2015 14:00 MUTCHO NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.3 02 AUG 2015 14:00 GARAPAN NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.3 02 AUG 2015 14:00 LAOLAO NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.3 02 AUG 2015 14:00 SUSUPI NORTHERN MARIANA I 0.3 THE FULL LIST OF LOCATIONS CAN BE VISUALIZED IN THE GDACS PAGE OF THE EVENT: HTTP://WWW.GDACS.ORG/REPORT.ASPX?EVENTTYPE=TC$AND;EVENTID=1000191$AND;EPISODEID=16 JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE, EUROPEAN COMMISSION (JRC-EC) - OFFICE FOR COORDINATION OF HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS (UN-OCHA) ________________________________________ DISCLAIMER WHILE WE TRY EVERYTHING TO ENSURE ACCURACY, THIS INFORMATION IS PURELY INDICATIVE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR ANY DECISION MAKING WITHOUT ALTERNATE SOURCES OF INFORMATION. THE JRC IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGE OR LOSS RESULTING FROM THE USE OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED ON GDACS WEBSITE. PLEASE REFER TO THE GDACS WEBSITE FOR SUBSCRIBING OR UNSUBSCRIBING FROM THE EARTHQUAKE ALERT EMAIL OR SMS SERVICE. END OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MESSAGE 001