The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the
regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected
by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the
forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.
This report is for advisory number 30 of tropical cyclone MANGKHUT-18 issued at 14 Sep 2018 6:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000498). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.
Summary
| Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): | 160 thousand |
| Saffir-Simpson Category: | Category 2 |
| Maximum sustained wind speed: | 159 Km/h |
| he maximum Storm surge height is: | The tropical cyclone did not reach sufficient strength to cause significant storm surge or is not predicted to affect populated places. |
Storm surge
 Storm surge maximum height GFS ( Source: JRC) |
 Max windspeed GFS ( Source: ECMWF) |
Evolution
| Legend |
| people affected <=10000 |
| people affected >10000 and <100000 |
| people affected >100000 |
| Calculation | Alert color | Date (UTC) | Wind speed | Population affected
winds(>120km/h) | TS | CAT. 1 | CAT. 2 | CAT. 3 | CAT. 4 | CAT. 5 | Countries |
| 1 | | 20180907.00 | 157 km/h (97 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | |
| 2 | | 20180907.06 | 62 km/h (38 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Taiwan |
| 3 | | 20180907.12 | 190 km/h (118 mph) | No people affected | | | | | | | |
| 4 | | 20180907.18 | 118 km/h (73 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Taiwan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 5 | | 20180908.00 | 157 km/h (97 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 6 | | 20180908.06 | 174 km/h (108 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 7 | | 20180908.12 | 190 km/h (118 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 8 | | 20180908.18 | 193 km/h (120 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 9 | | 20180909.00 | 197 km/h (122 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 10 | | 20180909.06 | 179 km/h (111 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 11 | | 20180909.12 | 159 km/h (99 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 12 | | 20180909.18 | 169 km/h (105 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 13 | | 20180910.00 | 155 km/h (96 mph) | 160 thousand | | | | | | | Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 14 | | 20180910.06 | 133 km/h (82 mph) | 10 thousand | | | | | | | Taiwan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
| 15 | | 20180910.12 | 104 km/h (65 mph) | No people | | | | | | | Northern Mariana Islands, Guam |
Affected locations
No locations affected.
More information
The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction.
The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.
For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.
