Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GABRIELLE-23
in Norfolk Island, New Caledonia
09 Feb 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GABRIELLE-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries New Caledonia, Norfolk Island, New Zealand
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (07 Feb 22:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 119 km/h n.a. 576 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 119 km/h n.a. 576 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormNew Caledonia, Norfolk Island, New Zealand6,679
+
New Caledonia3,574 
Norfolk Island2,448 
New Zealand656 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Feb 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Feb 2023 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Feb 2023 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 09 Feb 2023 00:00 119 -
- - - - - New Caledonia, Norfolk Island, New Zealand
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

576 mm

Up to 780 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmPapua New Guinea, Australia, Vanuatu, Fiji, New Caledonia784,696
+
Papua New Guinea665,765 
Australia47,455 
Vanuatu44,197 
Fiji1,804 
New Caledonia25,472 
50-100 mmPapua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Australia, Vanuatu, Fiji, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island4,684,737
+
Papua New Guinea2,432,549 
Solomon Islands4,086 
Australia1,192,058 
Vanuatu94,651 
Fiji734,961 
New Caledonia223,982 
Norfolk Island2,448 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Feb 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Papua New Guinea
Blue 2 08 Feb 2023 00:00 169 -
- - - - - Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Australia
Blue 3 08 Feb 2023 12:00 135 Few people
- - - - Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Australia
Blue 4 09 Feb 2023 00:00 324 60 thousand
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia, Fiji, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.9 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mAustralia, New Zealand33,086
+
Australia12,813 
New Zealand20,273 
0.25 - 0.5 mIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand148,317
+
Indonesia30,452 
Papua New Guinea854 
Australia52,011 
Fiji8,545 
New Caledonia111 
New Zealand56,341 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC