Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICOLE-22
in United States, Bahamas
09 Nov 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICOLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Canada, United States, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bahamas
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (09 Nov 04:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 108 km/h 0.9 m 358 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 108 km/h 0.9 m 358 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to 5.6 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormCanada, United States, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bahamas5,647,179
+
Canada106,783 
United States5,457,113 
Saint Pierre and Miquelon6,288 
Bahamas76,994 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Nov 2022 06:00 68 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 2 07 Nov 2022 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Canada, United States
GREEN 3 07 Nov 2022 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon
GREEN 4 08 Nov 2022 00:00 72 -
- - - - - Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon
GREEN 5 08 Nov 2022 06:00 72 -
- - - - - Canada
GREEN 6 08 Nov 2022 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon
GREEN 7 08 Nov 2022 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon
GREEN 8 09 Nov 2022 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Canada, Bahamas
GREEN 9 09 Nov 2022 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Canada, Bahamas
GREEN 10 09 Nov 2022 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Canada, United States, Bahamas
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPanama2,385 
100-250 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Colombia, Venezuela, Panama, Costa Rica, Guyana8,593,175
+
United States3,032,886 
Bahamas22,187 
Colombia4,531,517 
Venezuela279,249 
Trinidad and Tobago21,847 
Costa Rica399 
Panama704,893 
Guyana193 
50-100 mmCanada, United States, Bahamas, Mexico, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saba, Saint Eustatius, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Colombia, Bonaire, Grenada, Curaçao, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana55,119,319
+
Canada159,930 
United States24,634,705 
Bahamas56,713 
Mexico36,766 
Anguilla14,614 
Saint-Martin41,651 
Sint Maarten39,623 
Saint-Barthélemy10,440 
Antigua and Barbuda1,852 
Saba2,013 
Saint Eustatius4,449 
Honduras13,173 
Guatemala1,539,263 
Nicaragua147,349 
Colombia12,335,679 
Bonaire05 
Grenada49,058 
Curaçao2,453 
Venezuela6,894,894 
Trinidad and Tobago1,336,448 
Costa Rica4,171,315 
Panama3,143,436 
Guyana483,478 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Nov 2022 06:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Nov 2022 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 3 07 Nov 2022 18:00 67 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 4 08 Nov 2022 00:00 114 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 5 08 Nov 2022 06:00 113 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Nov 2022 12:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 08 Nov 2022 18:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 09 Nov 2022 00:00 95 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 9 09 Nov 2022 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 10 09 Nov 2022 12:00 256 1.9 million
- - - - Canada, United States, Bahamas, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.9 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mCanada, United States, Bahamas, Venezuela40,574
+
Canada5,408 
United States31,294 
Bahamas2,968 
Venezuela902 
0.25 - 0.5 mCanada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, United States, Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Panama, Colombia, Guyana693,884
+
Canada34,900 
Saint Pierre and Miquelon1,581 
United States222,641 
Bahamas19,704 
Cuba61 
Dominican Republic3,380 
Haiti121,540 
Jamaica11,556 
Honduras27,204 
Nicaragua28,889 
Venezuela93,830 
Trinidad and Tobago938 
Panama524 
Colombia95,604 
Guyana31,525 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC