Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JASMINE-22
in Madagascar
24 Apr 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JASMINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (24 Apr 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 83 km/h 0.8 m 105 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 119 km/h 0.7 m 426 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

119 km/h

Up to 70 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Apr 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar70,180 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Apr 2022 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Apr 2022 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Apr 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania172,084
+
Tanzania171,712 
Democratic Republic of the Congo371 
50-100 mmTanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa10,789,044
+
Tanzania9,720,108 
Democratic Republic of the Congo566,933 
Zambia351,467 
Malawi50,587 
Mozambique2,442 
Madagascar42,908 
South Africa54,596 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Apr 2022 00:00 221 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 2 24 Apr 2022 06:00 369 170 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Apr 2022 06:00 UTC