Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JASMINE-22
in Madagascar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JASMINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries South Africa
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (27 Apr 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 54 km/h 0.5 m 80 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 119 km/h 0.7 m 426 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

119 km/h

Up to 8 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSouth Africa8,439 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Apr 2022 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Apr 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 24 Apr 2022 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 24 Apr 2022 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Apr 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Apr 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 25 Apr 2022 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 25 Apr 2022 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Apr 2022 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Apr 2022 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 26 Apr 2022 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 12 26 Apr 2022 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 27 Apr 2022 00:00 72 -
- - - - - South Africa
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo10,319 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Burundi, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar5,401,382
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1,631,798 
Rwanda336,170 
Tanzania2,766,157 
Burundi311,218 
Malawi2,673 
Comoros324,997 
Madagascar28,366 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Apr 2022 00:00 221 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 2 24 Apr 2022 06:00 105 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 24 Apr 2022 12:00 176 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 24 Apr 2022 18:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Apr 2022 00:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Apr 2022 06:00 53 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 25 Apr 2022 12:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 25 Apr 2022 18:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Apr 2022 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Tanzania
Blue 10 26 Apr 2022 06:00 203 100 thousand
- - - - Tanzania
Blue 11 26 Apr 2022 12:00 73 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 26 Apr 2022 18:00 74 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 27 Apr 2022 00:00 136 10 thousand
- - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Burundi, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 00:00 UTC