Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JASMINE-22
in Madagascar
27 Apr 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JASMINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (24 Apr 17:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 119 km/h 0.7 m 483 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 119 km/h 0.7 m 483 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar584,323 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Apr 2022 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Apr 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 24 Apr 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 24 Apr 2022 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Apr 2022 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Apr 2022 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 25 Apr 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 25 Apr 2022 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Apr 2022 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Apr 2022 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 26 Apr 2022 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 12 26 Apr 2022 18:00 90 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 27 Apr 2022 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 27 Apr 2022 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 27 Apr 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

483 mm

Up to 90 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMadagascar89,744 
50-100 mmMozambique, Madagascar659,175
+
Mozambique17,104 
Madagascar642,071 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Apr 2022 00:00 452 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Apr 2022 06:00 163 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 3 24 Apr 2022 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 24 Apr 2022 18:00 228 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Apr 2022 00:00 237 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Apr 2022 06:00 178 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 25 Apr 2022 12:00 195 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 25 Apr 2022 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Apr 2022 00:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Apr 2022 06:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 26 Apr 2022 12:00 110 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 26 Apr 2022 18:00 96 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 27 Apr 2022 00:00 103 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 27 Apr 2022 06:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 27 Apr 2022 12:00 403 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMadagascar, Mozambique84,535
+
Madagascar15,470 
Mozambique69,064 
0.25 - 0.5 mTanzania, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa476,696
+
Tanzania119,313 
Madagascar96,087 
Mozambique261,274 
South Africa21 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 12:00 UTC