Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MALOU-21
Off-shore
29 Oct 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MALOU-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Japan, Russia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 202 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (23 Oct 17:15 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 202 km/h 1.2 m 616 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 202 km/h 1.2 m 616 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormJapan, Russia29,973
+
Japan29,685 
Russia288 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Oct 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Oct 2021 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 24 Oct 2021 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 4 25 Oct 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Oct 2021 12:00 130 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 6 26 Oct 2021 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Oct 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Oct 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Oct 2021 12:00 112 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 10 28 Oct 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 11 28 Oct 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 12 29 Oct 2021 00:00 202 -
- - - - - Russia, Japan
GREEN 13 29 Oct 2021 12:00 137 -
- - - - - Russia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

616 mm

Up to 370 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmJapan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Marshall Islands, Micronesia372,284
+
Japan198,918 
Northern Mariana Islands892 
Guam160,672 
Marshall Islands10,641 
Micronesia1,158 
50-100 mmJapan, North Korea, China, Russia, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Marshall Islands, Micronesia4,999,803
+
Japan3,743,714 
North Korea1,061,641 
China1,512 
Russia1,041 
Northern Mariana Islands54,177 
Guam9,212 
Marshall Islands38,370 
Micronesia90,133 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Oct 2021 12:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Oct 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 24 Oct 2021 12:00 490 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 4 25 Oct 2021 00:00 208 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 5 25 Oct 2021 12:00 232 Few people
- - - - Japan
Blue 6 26 Oct 2021 00:00 316 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Oct 2021 12:00 342 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Oct 2021 00:00 234 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Oct 2021 12:00 221 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 10 28 Oct 2021 00:00 148 Few people
- - - - Japan
Blue 11 28 Oct 2021 12:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Oct 2021 00:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 29 Oct 2021 12:00 189 -
- - - - - North Korea, China, Russia, Japan, Guam, Marshall Islands, Micronesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.2 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mJapan6,667 
0.5 - 1.0 mRussia, Japan, South Korea1,036,923
+
Russia23,766 
Japan997,814 
South Korea15,342 
0.25 - 0.5 mRussia, Japan, South Korea3,707,995
+
Russia25,357 
Japan3,424,599 
South Korea258,038 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC