Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico
24 Oct 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 173 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (25 Oct 07:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 173 km/h 0.3 m 566 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 173 km/h 0.4 m 857 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico277,002 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 187 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

857 mm

Up to 1.2 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico973 
100-250 mmMexico1,198,580 
50-100 mmMexico1,270,741 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 224 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 470 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 194 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 254 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 193 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 260 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 686 1.2 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC