Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
02 Jul 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Exposed population 40 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (03 Jul 13:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 97 km/h 0.5 m 112 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 5.9 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Cuba, Haiti43,375
+
Cuba5,983 
Haiti37,391 
Tropical StormCuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados5,850,744
+
Cuba619,474 
Dominican Republic206,956 
Haiti4,044,267 
Puerto Rico6,276 
Guadeloupe43,948 
Dominica48,529 
Martinique339,390 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines72,685 
Barbados284,214 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 194 40 thousand
- - - - Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmCuba, Haiti, Jamaica287,563
+
Cuba29,585 
Haiti239,689 
Jamaica18,289 
100-250 mmCuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados1,262,050
+
Cuba417,224 
Dominican Republic74,275 
Haiti488,290 
Jamaica239,486 
Puerto Rico6,445 
Saint Lucia8,764 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines10,748 
Barbados16,813 
50-100 mmCuba, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados3,694,970
+
Cuba1,515,794 
Cayman Islands202 
Dominican Republic432,868 
Haiti536,053 
Jamaica291,896 
Puerto Rico318,194 
Guadeloupe256 
Martinique89,985 
Saint Lucia149,679 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines92,638 
Barbados267,401 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 271 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 512 1.5 million
- - - Cuba, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC