Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
02 Jul 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (02 Jul 10:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 94 km/h 0.5 m 271 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 6 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormCuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados6,018,888
+
Cuba303,225 
Haiti3,985,636 
Dominican Republic69,191 
Jamaica298,513 
Puerto Rico97,155 
Guadeloupe338,873 
Dominica55,570 
Martinique338,949 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines62,558 
Barbados284,214 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 227 -
- - - - - Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmHaiti1,873 
250-500 mmHaiti, Jamaica131,375
+
Haiti127,988 
Jamaica3,386 
100-250 mmCuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago2,204,083
+
Cuba43,440 
Dominican Republic72,503 
Haiti546,465 
Jamaica995,803 
Guadeloupe155 
Martinique231 
Saint Lucia74,488 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines80,059 
Barbados284,214 
Grenada13,243 
Trinidad and Tobago61,746 
Venezuela31,730 
50-100 mmCuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela3,143,651
+
Cuba578,852 
Dominican Republic226,032 
Haiti445,234 
Jamaica704,743 
Guadeloupe15,595 
Martinique313,579 
Saint Lucia110,510 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines29,295 
Grenada80,558 
Trinidad and Tobago522,079 
Venezuela117,170 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 641 2.3 million
- - Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC