Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
09 Jul 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.3 m (07 Jul 15:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados8,013,041
+
United States1,581,662 
Cuba1,544,645 
Dominican Republic140,394 
Haiti3,681,015 
Puerto Rico57 
Guadeloupe45,723 
Dominica51,009 
Martinique394,134 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines105,185 
Barbados284,214 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 133 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
GREEN 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
GREEN 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 126 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
GREEN 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 130 -
- - - - - Dominican Republic, Haiti
GREEN 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Dominican Republic, Haiti
GREEN 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Haiti
GREEN 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 101 -
- - - - - Haiti
GREEN 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba, Haiti
GREEN 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 20 05 Jul 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 21 05 Jul 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 06 Jul 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 23 06 Jul 2021 06:00 90 -
- - - - - United States, Cuba
GREEN 24 06 Jul 2021 12:00 112 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 25 06 Jul 2021 18:00 104 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 26 07 Jul 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 27 07 Jul 2021 06:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 28 07 Jul 2021 12:00 90 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 29 07 Jul 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 08 Jul 2021 00:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 31 08 Jul 2021 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 08 Jul 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 08 Jul 2021 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 34 09 Jul 2021 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 35 09 Jul 2021 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 36 09 Jul 2021 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 37 09 Jul 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

448 mm

Up to 2.4 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States, Cuba, Haiti121,553
+
United States115,876 
Cuba4,611 
Haiti1,065 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti2,309,636
+
United States1,325,195 
Cuba410,016 
Dominican Republic27,768 
Haiti84,812 
Jamaica461,843 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago5,540,995
+
United States3,501,271 
Cuba311,310 
Dominican Republic186,881 
Haiti359,447 
Jamaica892,735 
Guadeloupe521 
Saint Lucia40,608 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines48,975 
Barbados116,013 
Venezuela75,667 
Trinidad and Tobago7,562 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 271 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 131 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Blue 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 131 -
- - - - - Venezuela
Blue 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 154 10 thousand
- - - - Dominican Republic
Blue 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 179 -
- - - - - Haiti, Dominican Republic
Blue 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 120 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 137 20 thousand
- - - - Haiti
Blue 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 146 70 thousand
- - - - Cuba, Jamaica
Blue 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 213 150 thousand
- - - - Cuba, Jamaica
Blue 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 350 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 158 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 20 05 Jul 2021 12:00 407 2 thousand
- - - - Cuba
Blue 21 05 Jul 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 06 Jul 2021 00:00 199 40 thousand
- - - - Cuba
Blue 23 06 Jul 2021 06:00 243 110 thousand
- - - - Cuba
Blue 24 06 Jul 2021 12:00 193 20 thousand
- - - - United States
Blue 25 06 Jul 2021 18:00 140 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 26 07 Jul 2021 00:00 353 450 thousand
- - - United States
Blue 27 07 Jul 2021 06:00 222 40 thousand
- - - - United States
Blue 28 07 Jul 2021 12:00 160 20 thousand
- - - - United States
Blue 29 07 Jul 2021 18:00 108 Few people
- - - - United States
Blue 30 08 Jul 2021 00:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 08 Jul 2021 06:00 5 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 08 Jul 2021 12:00 5 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 08 Jul 2021 18:00 1 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 09 Jul 2021 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 35 09 Jul 2021 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 36 09 Jul 2021 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 37 09 Jul 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mUnited States674 
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States, Cuba, Venezuela377,667
+
United States358,475 
Cuba11,059 
Venezuela8,131 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Guadeloupe, Nicaragua, Saint Lucia, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Panama428,142
+
United States42,430 
Cuba53,784 
Mexico56,593 
Guadeloupe10,938 
Nicaragua26,459 
Saint Lucia2,139 
Colombia127,824 
Venezuela99,073 
Trinidad and Tobago8,156 
Panama742 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC