Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
01 Jul 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Exposed population 620 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (01 Jul 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 83 km/h 0.6 m 250 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 6.7 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Dominican Republic355 
CAT. 1Haiti, Dominican Republic, Barbados623,490
+
Haiti616,753 
Dominican Republic2,706 
Barbados4,030 
Tropical StormHaiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados6,738,841
+
Haiti4,885,139 
Dominican Republic498,786 
Puerto Rico33,195 
Montserrat5,124 
Guadeloupe323,767 
Dominica68,283 
Martinique394,134 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines65,226 
Barbados280,184 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 184 620 thousand
- - - Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmHaiti, Dominican Republic182,802
+
Dominican Republic33,452 
Haiti149,349 
100-250 mmDominican Republic, Haiti, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados1,484,988
+
Dominican Republic195,056 
Haiti1,154,210 
Guadeloupe50 
Martinique6,469 
Saint Lucia66,103 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines51,905 
Barbados11,192 
50-100 mmDominican Republic, Haiti, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados4,936,472
+
Dominican Republic832,496 
Haiti3,316,216 
Guadeloupe23,373 
Martinique320,218 
Saint Lucia118,379 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines52,956 
Barbados272,831 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 480 1.7 million
- - - Dominican Republic, Haiti, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC