Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ODALYS-26 Off-shore from 20 Sep 2026 09:00 UTC to 27 Sep 2026 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ODALYS-26

Off-shore

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ODALYS-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	144 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (20 Sep 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	144 km/h	0.5 m	677 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	144 km/h	0.5 m	706 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	20 Sep 2026 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	20 Sep 2026 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	20 Sep 2026 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	21 Sep 2026 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	21 Sep 2026 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	21 Sep 2026 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	21 Sep 2026 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	22 Sep 2026 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	22 Sep 2026 06:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	22 Sep 2026 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	22 Sep 2026 18:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	23 Sep 2026 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	23 Sep 2026 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	23 Sep 2026 12:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	23 Sep 2026 18:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	24 Sep 2026 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	24 Sep 2026 06:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	24 Sep 2026 12:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	24 Sep 2026 18:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

706 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	20 Sep 2026 06:00	419	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	20 Sep 2026 12:00	239	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	20 Sep 2026 18:00	132	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	21 Sep 2026 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	21 Sep 2026 06:00	273	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	21 Sep 2026 12:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	21 Sep 2026 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	22 Sep 2026 00:00	208	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	22 Sep 2026 06:00	240	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	22 Sep 2026 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	22 Sep 2026 18:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	23 Sep 2026 00:00	165	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	23 Sep 2026 06:00	419	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	23 Sep 2026 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	23 Sep 2026 18:00	146	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	24 Sep 2026 00:00	202	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	24 Sep 2026 06:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	24 Sep 2026 12:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	24 Sep 2026 18:00	677	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Agua del Coyote, Mexico. This height is estimated for 20 Sep 2026 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
0.25 - 0.5 m	Mexico	69,400	+
	Mexico	69,389
	Other countries	11

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.5
	26 Sep 2026 19:30	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.5
	22 Sep 2026 16:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.4
	22 Sep 2026 16:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.4
	26 Sep 2026 19:30	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 22:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.4
	21 Sep 2026 16:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 22:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.4
	27 Sep 2026 03:45	La Choya	Mexico	0.4
	24 Sep 2026 23:15	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.4
	27 Sep 2026 03:45	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 23:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 23:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 23:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 23:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 10:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 05:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 05:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 05:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.3
	25 Sep 2026 18:15	Cedros	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 11:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 11:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.3
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.3
	26 Sep 2026 12:45	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.3
	26 Sep 2026 12:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.3
	26 Sep 2026 13:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.3
	26 Sep 2026 13:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 19:15	Los Burros	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 05:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 10:45	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 20:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 23:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 23:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.3
	22 Sep 2026 16:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 22:45	Guasimas	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 04:15	Guaymas	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 04:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 05:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 05:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 10:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 22:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 22:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 22:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 04:45	Tastiota	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 04:45	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 04:45	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 23:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 23:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.3
	23 Sep 2026 22:15	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 22:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 03:30	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	27 Sep 2026 04:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 23:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 16:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	26 Sep 2026 23:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	26 Sep 2026 23:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	27 Sep 2026 04:45	Molino	Mexico	0.2
	27 Sep 2026 04:45	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 04:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 04:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 19:30	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 03:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	27 Sep 2026 04:00	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.2
	26 Sep 2026 23:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 10:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 10:30	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 23:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 23:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	27 Sep 2026 02:30	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 05:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 23:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 04:30	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 04:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 19:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 04:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 04:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 04:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 10:15	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.2
	27 Sep 2026 01:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	26 Sep 2026 12:45	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.2
	26 Sep 2026 12:45	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	26 Sep 2026 12:45	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 01:15	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 17:00	El Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 10:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 10:45	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 10:45	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 06:30	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 06:45	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.2
	25 Sep 2026 17:45	Erendria	Mexico	0.2
	25 Sep 2026 17:30	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.2
	25 Sep 2026 17:30	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.2
	25 Sep 2026 17:30	Ensenada	Mexico	0.2
	25 Sep 2026 17:45	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 10:30	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 22:45	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 16:15	Rosarito	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 23:15	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 03:30	La Playa	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:15	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2026 02:30	El Descanso	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2026 02:30	La Mision	Mexico	0.1
	25 Sep 2026 17:30	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
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