Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ODALYS-26 Off-shore from 20 Sep 2026 09:00 UTC to 27 Sep 2026 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ODALYS-26

Off-shore

21 Sep 2026 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ODALYS-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	126 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (21 Sep 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	119 km/h	0.5 m	510 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	126 km/h	0.5 m	516 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	20 Sep 2026 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	20 Sep 2026 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	20 Sep 2026 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	21 Sep 2026 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	21 Sep 2026 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	21 Sep 2026 12:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

516 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico	523

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	20 Sep 2026 06:00	232	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	20 Sep 2026 12:00	257	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	20 Sep 2026 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	21 Sep 2026 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	21 Sep 2026 06:00	146	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	21 Sep 2026 12:00	510	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 21 Sep 2026 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
0.25 - 0.5 m	Mexico	30,263	+
	Mexico	30,252
	Other countries	11

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Sep 2026 16:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.5
	22 Sep 2026 02:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.4
	21 Sep 2026 16:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.4
	21 Sep 2026 16:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.4
	22 Sep 2026 01:45	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.3
	20 Sep 2026 21:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.3
	20 Sep 2026 21:45	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	20 Sep 2026 23:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.3
	22 Sep 2026 02:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.3
	22 Sep 2026 01:45	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.3
	22 Sep 2026 06:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.3
	22 Sep 2026 07:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.3
	22 Sep 2026 07:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	22 Sep 2026 07:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.3
	20 Sep 2026 21:30	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 17:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 17:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 17:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	20 Sep 2026 22:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 00:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 00:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 00:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 06:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 06:30	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 01:45	Molino	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 01:45	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:30	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 06:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:30	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 06:30	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 06:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:45	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 06:15	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 02:15	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 06:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 06:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 05:45	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 16:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	20 Sep 2026 21:30	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 02:15	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 02:15	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 05:30	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 02:45	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 02:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 03:30	La Playa	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	20 Sep 2026 15:15	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.2
	20 Sep 2026 15:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.2
	20 Sep 2026 22:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 22:15	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 21:45	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:45	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:30	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:30	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:30	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:15	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:30	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2026 20:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:15	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:15	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:15	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:15	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:30	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:15	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:15	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:30	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:15	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:15	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:30	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:15	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:30	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:30	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:30	Ensenada	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 16:45	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:00	Rosarito	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:00	El Descanso	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:00	La Mision	Mexico	0.1
	20 Sep 2026 15:00	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.