Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ODALYS-26 Off-shore from 20 Sep 2026 09:00 UTC to 27 Sep 2026 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ODALYS-26

Off-shore

21 Sep 2026 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ODALYS-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	151 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (21 Sep 05:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	151 km/h	0.5 m	499 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	151 km/h	0.6 m	499 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	19 Sep 2026 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	20 Sep 2026 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	20 Sep 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	21 Sep 2026 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	21 Sep 2026 12:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

499 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	19 Sep 2026 12:00	290	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	20 Sep 2026 00:00	286	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	20 Sep 2026 12:00	208	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	21 Sep 2026 00:00	190	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	21 Sep 2026 12:00	499	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 21 Sep 2026 05:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
0.5 - 1.0 m	Mexico	1,257
0.25 - 0.5 m	Mexico	51,381	+
	Mexico	51,369
	Other countries	12

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Sep 2026 05:45	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.6
	21 Sep 2026 05:45	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.5
	21 Sep 2026 21:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.5
	21 Sep 2026 06:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.5
	20 Sep 2026 05:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 05:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.4
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.4
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.4
	20 Sep 2026 05:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.4
	23 Sep 2026 05:45	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 15:30	La Choya	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 22:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.3
	20 Sep 2026 03:45	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 15:30	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 10:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 10:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 10:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 22:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.3
	20 Sep 2026 17:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 01:30	San Jose	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 01:30	Atanacio	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 01:30	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 10:15	Los Burros	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 10:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 01:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 01:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 10:30	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 11:45	Guaymas	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 11:45	Empalme	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 10:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 10:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 10:30	San Rafael	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2026 22:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.3
	24 Sep 2026 01:15	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	20 Sep 2026 14:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	20 Sep 2026 14:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:45	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 01:15	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 02:45	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 06:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 23:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	20 Sep 2026 16:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 02:30	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:45	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:30	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:30	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 02:15	Molino	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 02:15	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 02:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 02:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 03:15	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 03:15	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 10:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 06:30	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 11:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 21:45	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 21:45	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:45	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 21:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 21:45	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	24 Sep 2026 12:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 02:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:45	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:45	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 21:30	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 02:45	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2026 21:30	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2026 21:30	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 21:45	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 11:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 23:30	La Playa	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 07:15	Rosarito	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 02:30	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	San Lucas	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2026 21:45	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2026 21:00	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2026 22:15	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2026 05:15	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2026 05:15	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2026 05:15	Ensenada	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2026 21:15	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2026 06:30	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2026 22:30	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 05:30	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 05:30	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2026 21:15	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2026 21:30	El Descanso	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2026 21:30	La Mision	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.