Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FOUR-21
in India
Impact Single TC
HWRF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FOUR-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (11 Nov 13:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 58 km/h 0.3 m 31 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 68 km/h 0.3 m 376 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Nov 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 11 Nov 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 11 Nov 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Nov 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndia2,246,409 
50-100 mmIndia, Sri Lanka10,393,375
+
India7,194,163 
Sri Lanka3,199,211 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 11 Nov 2021 06:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 11 Nov 2021 12:00 295 2.2 million
- - - - India, Sri Lanka




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Durgarajupatnam, India. This height is estimated for 11 Nov 2021 13:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Nov 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Nov 2021 13:45 Durgarajupatnam India  0.3
11 Nov 2021 16:30 Hukitala India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 16:30 Satabhaya India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 13:45 Kodur India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:30 Vedaranyam India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:30 Vedaranniyam India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 15:15 Bijavbati India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 13:15 Therunattam India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Kelambakkam India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Saint Thomas Mount India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Madhavaram India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Chennai India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Chakicherla India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Ullapalem India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Pakala India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 13:45 Ennore India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Tiruvottiyur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 13:15 Mahabalipuram India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 18:00 Velangann India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:45 Nagappattinam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Peddapatnam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Lankavanidibba India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:30 Bideipur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Pondicherry India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Kalapettai India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Marakkanam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 13:45 Kuvattur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:45 Accarapatam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:30 Kottapatnam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:00 Konada India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 13:30 Vatturupallepalem India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 13:30 Govundlapalem India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 13:15 Purnankuppam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:45 Karaikal India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:00 Porto Novo India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:30 Rasalpur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:30 Anaitivu Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:30 Ammanthanaveli Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:30 Arukarkudah Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:45 Kakinada India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:30 Kodigeri India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:00 Chittivalasa India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:00 Tirumullaivasal India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:45 Kaveripattanam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:15 Koyyam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:15 Dharmavaram India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:15 Thoothukkudi India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:45 Chandipur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 16:30 Foul Point Sri Lanka  0.1